“What does the future of business look like right now?” This is the question that Diligent answered in their recent Director Confidence Index report. Taking data from directors of public companies, they asked industry leaders to rate the business environment on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 spelling out sunshine for the days ahead.
Taking insights from Diligent’s report, this blog serves as a forecast for the future of business, tackling issues that board members are truly worried (or not worried) about.
So, how did directors rate business conditions this month? A mere 4.4 out of 10. This lukewarm response is not shocking, especially given that the top three issues on directors’ minds – tariffs, inflation and supply chain disruptions – have been defined by seemingly constant volatility. Meanwhile, 57% of directors still predict a recession in the next six months.
As Joseph R. Bronson, a director on the board of PDF Solutions put it, “You can’t forecast anything in this uncertain environment.”
Optimism In The Future of Business?
Looking at businesses abroad, confidence in the U.S. business environment has been falling throughout 2025. May’s 4.4 rating by U.S. public board members dropped from 4.7 in March to 6.7 at the beginning of the year. For SA, this could spell out a weaker rand, less global demand, and reduced investment flows, to say the least.
But here’s the good news: Expectations for the future may be looking up. In the recent survey, 40% of directors foresee improved business conditions in the months ahead, up from 36% percent in the survey before. It’s only 4 percentage points, but it’s progress.
Also encouraging: Only 2 out of 10 (21%) of directors surveyed recently believe that conditions will deteriorate further. This is a dramatic change from 4 out of 10 (41%) in the earlier surveys.
“The policy transitions underway will be clearer [by this time next year] — and many will contribute to stronger forecast,” one director explained.
“We need to get through the short-term tariff overhang,” another remarked. “Underlying business activity will strengthen as uncertainty lessens.”
As the world waits for this to happen, how have boards been coping with it all? What lessons do they have to share? Here are some other takeaways from the May 2025 Director Confidence Index:
Takeaway 1: Amp Up Conversations and Innovation
Volatile circumstances demand adaptive governance. To achieve such responsive oversight, 42% of the directors we surveyed want to increase the frequency of their board’s strategy and risk discussions. Just over one third (35%) reported using AI tools for real-time data and risk analysis.
These findings make sense — especially in tandem. As today’s conditions spurs the need for more frequent conversations about risk and strategy, boards are also recognising the need for real-time data and analysis to support these conversations.
“More boards are realising that uncertainty is the new norm,” said Brian Kushner, Director at Resideo Technologies, pointing out that “many elements driving this uncertainty have been experienced in the past – just not all at the same time.”
Takeaway 2: Take Action in Strategic Growth and Risk Mitigation
Given such uncertainty, is now really the right time to pursue growth?
For nearly half of the directors we surveyed, the answer is yes.
- 48% said they’re focused on growth in the second half of this year – despite prevailing uncertainty.
- 39% are addressing two areas most impacted by changing trade policies: supply chain diversification and pricing models.
- 36% reported risk mitigation efforts like reforecasting and scenario planning.
One director called the uncertainty surrounding the future of business “a lot of noise currently with unknowns”, but the “fundamentals are sound.”
